The Need of the Turkish Electricity Market Towards COP31: Flexibility

In our Under the Spotlight report titled “The Electricity Market’s Shield Against Crises: Renewable Energy,” published at the beginning of April, we examined why the market clearing price (MCP) in Türkiye had declined while global energy prices were rising. We highlighted the increasing share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation as the main factor behind this decline. When we include the observations for April and May announced after the publication of our report, we see that renewable energy sources continue to shape the electricity market.

In April 2026, the share of renewable energy sources in Türkiye’s electricity generation exceeded 70%, reaching a record high. Similar levels continued to be recorded in May. Among renewable energy sources generating more electricity than in previous years, hydropower stands out. Of the 118.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity generated in the first four months of 2026, approximately 30% came from hydropower plants. In the same period of the previous year, this share stood at 18.8%.

During this period, solar and wind power also supported electricity generation alongside hydropower. The combined share of these two sources in electricity generation reached 22.2% in the first four months of the year. Accordingly, renewable energy sources continued to account for a share of electricity generation above historical averages, reaching 71.5% in the first 20 days of May.

The high share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation has led to lower MCP levels compared with previous years. In April 2026, the MCP fell to TRY 921/MWh, a 62.4% decrease compared with the same month of the previous year. During the first 20 days of May, it declined further to TRY 681.4/MWh. Despite this downward trend, MCP levels vary between daytime and nighttime, with prices rising at night and increasing uncertainty around electricity costs. The growing share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation makes steps towards flexibility solutions, such as energy storage systems and smart meters, increasingly important for ensuring the sustainable operation of electricity systems.

“Clean Energy Transition” is among the priority themes of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31), which will be held in Antalya in November 2026. Issues such as grid infrastructure, storage and flexibility mechanisms, as well as energy efficiency, are also expected to be on the agenda, given their role in improving the efficiency of electricity systems. Türkiye is also expected to increase its renewable energy targets for 2035 during the COP31 period. In this context, taking steps at COP31 to accelerate the transition from targets to implementation will be important for enhancing the flexibility and effective management of electricity systems in Türkiye.

Ezgi İpek Koçlu – TSKB Economic Research

[1] https://www.tskb.com.tr/uploads/file/elektrik-piyasasinin-kriz-kalkani-yenilenen-enerji.pdf

[2] https://cop31.tr/#themes

[3] https://yesilekonomi.com/yenilenende-yeni-hedefler-cop31de-aciklamak

Source: https://www.tskb.com.tr/blog/sektorler/cop31e-dogru-turkiye-elektrik-piyasasinin-ihtiyaci-esneklik