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13 Climate Action

COP31

1.5°C and Beyond

1.5°C and Beyond
13

The 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), held in Paris in 2015, marked a major milestone in global climate action with the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The Agreement aims to keep the rise in global temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. It also calls on all signatory countries to establish emission reduction plans and take greater responsibility for tackling global warming (United Nations, 2015).

However, an assessment published that same year indicated that even if countries fulfilled their existing commitments, global warming could reach 3–3.5°C by the end of the century, highlighting the need for much more ambitious action to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement (United Nations Environment Programme, 2015). Today, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is becoming an increasingly distant prospect. With COP31 just around the corner, an important question arises: What comes next?

According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) 2026 Emissions Gap Report, global temperatures could rise by 2.8°C by the end of this century under current policies (UNEP, 2026a). Full implementation of the second round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), updated in 2025, is projected to lower this figure to 2.6°C.

However, limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires much more ambitious emission reductions beyond current commitments. According to UNEP, total emissions need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 46% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.

Başak Toprakcı | TSKB Economic Research

Source: https://www.tskb.com.tr/blog/kuresel-ekonomi/1-5c-ve-otesi