TSKB

7 Affordable and Clean Energy

COP31

35 out of 35: COP31 and Electrification

35 out of 35: COP31 and Electrification
7 12 13

The 21st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), held in Paris in 2015, marked a major milestone in global climate action with the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The Agreement aims to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. It also calls on all Parties to establish emission reduction plans and take greater responsibility for tackling global warming (United Nations, 2015).

However, an assessment published that same year indicated that even if countries implemented their existing commitments, global warming could reach 3–3.5°C by the end of the century. This highlighted the need for much more ambitious action to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement (United Nations Environment Programme, 2015).

Today, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is becoming increasingly out of reach. With COP31 just around the corner, an important question arises: What comes next?

According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) 2026 Emissions Gap Report, global temperatures could rise by 2.8°C by the end of this century under current policies (UNEP, 2026a). Full implementation of the second Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), updated in 2025, is projected to bring this figure down to 2.6°C.

However, limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires much deeper emission cuts beyond current commitments. According to UNEP, total emissions need to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 46% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels.

 

For Türkiye, the share of electricity in final energy consumption increased from 14% in 2000 to 21.8% in 2024. However, this share has remained largely unchanged since 2018 (Ember Energy, 2026).

According to statements by Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar, Türkiye continues to take steps towards the targets set for COP31. As part of its COP31 Presidency, Türkiye aims to promote international cooperation on electricity grid modernisation, renewable energy integration and financing infrastructure investments (Gökkoyun, 2026). In this context, electrification is expected to be a key focus of the new energy architecture, scheduled to be announced on 5 November 2026, supporting the 35% target (Başak Erkalan Köprübaşılı, 2026).

COP31 is expected to bring electrification further to the forefront of both the global and Turkish energy agendas. However, achieving the 2035 target will also require addressing existing regional and sectoral disparities in electrification. As the share of electricity in energy consumption increases, key considerations will include system flexibility, energy storage, security of supply and grid security. Concrete steps in these areas by Türkiye, as the host of COP31, could help advance the target while creating opportunities for international investment and cooperation.

Ezgi İpek Koçlu | TSKB Economic Research

Source: https://www.tskb.com.tr/blog/sektorler/35te-35-cop31-ve-elektrification